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Prediction for CME (2015-06-09T20:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-09T20:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8632/-1
CME Note: Associated with an eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 around 2015-06-09T20:00Z from AR 2364. Also connected to the C2.8 flare also from AR 2364 around the same time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-12T12:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-12T10:24Z (-8.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

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Lead Time: 41.88 hour(s)
Difference: 1.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Aleksandre Taktakishvili (GSFC) on 2015-06-10T18:26Z
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